Here comes the second comparison between the US team and Russia at the 2011 Worlds team final – the uneven bars. The scores still come from the qualification and all-around final at the Russian Cup and day 1 and 2 at Visa’s. And once again: Of course, gymnasts from both countries still have the time to improve their performances but assuming they’ll improve pretty equally I’ll ignore potentially increased difficulty or better execution but calculate with what we know right now.
On the Russian team are: Dementyeva, Komova, Afanasyeva, Belokobylskaya, Nabieva and Paseka.
I assume on the US team will be: Sacramone, Wieber, Raisman, Maroney, Memmel definitely and maybe Caquatto.
Let’s start this time with the Russians. We have Viktoria Komova of course with her difficult and beautiful routine, Tatiana Nabieva and Anna Dementyeva.
Viktoria Komova: 15.800/15.700 = 15.750
Tatiana Nabieva: 14.775/15.200 = 14.988
Anna Dementyeva: 14.950/14.975 = 14.963
15.750 + 14.988 + 14.963 = 45.701
A score above 45 (maybe even 46) with one routine above 15.500 from Komova, one routine between 15.000 and 15.500 from Nabieva and a score around 15.000 from Dementyeva is doable for the Russians. Though we shouldn’t forget the problems they had last year at the uneven bars. In Tokyo they really need to hit the routines in order to compensate for the lost points on vault.
Now the USA. I say Wieber, Memmel and Caquatto have to do the job on the uneven bars.
Jordyn Wieber: (6.5 D-Score) 14.550/15.200 = 14.875
Chellsie Memmel: (5.6/3.0 D-Score) 14.400/9.550 = 11.975
Mackenzie Caquatto: (6.0 D-Score) 15.000/14.700 = 14.850
14.875 + 11.975 + 14.850 = 41.700
Okay, this is of course not very helpful. First, Chellsie Memmel’s score is too low, it’s not very likely that she’ll fall again at Worlds and even if she comes off she’ll surely finish her routine this time. Second, there is the possibility that Douglas makes the team instead of Memmel and performs a solid (6.4 D-Score) routine which could bring the US a few extra tenth.
So let’s say Memmel normally has an execution score around 8.8/8.9, this would give the USA a combined score of 44.175. Last year they had a similiar score (44.065) with routines from Bross, Caquatto and Sloan.
To sum up: The US will get a score around 44.000 with three solid performances. Russia will finish 1.5 points (maybe even 2 points) ahead of the USA and win this apparatus. The two teams should have a pretty equal score after vault and bars with the USA slightly leading.
Beam is next.