Beam is a great event for both teams, the USA and Russia. They have both solid and difficult performances. Let’s see which team will have an advantage at the 2011 World Championships. The scores still come from the qualification and all-around final at the Russian Cup and day 1 and 2 at Visa’s. And once again: Of course, gymnasts from both countries still have the time to improve their performances but assuming they’ll improve pretty equally I’ll ignore potentially increased difficulty or better execution but calculate with what we know right now.
On the Russian team are: Dementyeva, Komova, Afanasyeva, Belokobylskaya, Nabieva and Paseka.
I assume on the US team will be: Sacramone, Wieber, Raisman, Maroney, Memmel definitely and maybe Caquatto.
Jordyn Wieber, Alicia Sacramone and Chellsie Memmel are three solid and clean beamworkers, they finished all in the top three places at Visa Championships.
Jordyn Wieber: (6.2 /6.1 D-Score) 14.600/15.300 = 14.950
Chellsie Memmel: (6.2/6.1 D-Score) 15.250/14.750 = 15.000
Alicia Sacramone (6.0 D-Score) 15.200/14.900 = 15.050
14.950 + 15.000 + 15.050 = 45.000
If the US team manages to present three routines worth 15.0 each under a lot of pressure at the World team finals they definitely would have a great preparation for the Olympics. I say a score of 45.000 is possible for the USA.
Russia has two excellent beam workers with Viktoria Komova and the European Champion on this apparatus, Anna Dementyeva. Ksenia Afanasyeva is a bit of a questionmark – she has the difficulty but is she mentally strong enough?
Viktoria Komova: 14.800/15.150 = 14.975
Anna Dementyeva: 15.300/15.300 = 15.300
Ksenia Afanasyeva: 14.900/14.300 = 14.600
14.975 + 15.300 + 14.600 = 44.875
In the event final, Komova scored even 15.525 while Afanasyeva had some problems and got only 12.725. So, here the USA and Russia are pretty equal. If everything goes as planned for Russia and Afanansyeva has a good day they might even score a little higher than the USA with Komova’s difficulty and more importantly clean execution.
To sum up: I see both teams with a score around 45.000 (if all of the six gymnasts stay on) and after the third rotation, they should also have the same score overall. The country with fewer wobbles and more connections on beam might slightly lead at this point.
Last but not least: Floor.